THREAT OPS › Threat News › Risk Scenarios for the US’s Strategic Pivot
Risk Scenarios for the US’s Strategic Pivot
<h2>Summary</h2> <p>The United States (US) is shifting toward a more force-driven security strategy primarily relying on military operations and economic pressure to counter transnational criminal organizations and limit Chinese, Russian, and Iranian influence in the Western Hemisphere.</p> <p>Regional outcomes diverge across three core scenarios:</p> <ul> <li>US-
MITRE ATT&CK techniques
- Cloud ServicesT1021.007
Indicators of compromise
- http://whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/designating-cartels-and-other-organizations-as-foreign-terrorist-organizations-and-specially-designated-global-terrorists/url
- https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/08/us/trump-military-drug-cartels.htmlurl
- https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-drug-boat-strikes-timeline.htmlurl
- https://www.brookings.edu/articles/making-sense-of-the-us-military-operation-in-venezuela/url
- https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/03/the-united-states-to-host-the-shield-of-the-americas-summiturl
- https://www.cfr.org/backgrounders/china-influence-latin-america-argentina-brazil-venezuela-security-energy-briurl
- https://www.cfr.org/backgrounders/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiativeurl
- https://www.newsweek.com/list-us-navy-ships-venezuela-trump-maduro-2123734url
- https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0400url
- https://chinaglobalsouth.com/analysis/belt-road-initiative-record-2025/url
- https://www.ifri.org/sites/default/files/migrated_files/documents/atoms/files/ekman_smart_cities_battleground.pdfurl
Original source: https://www.recordedfuture.com/research/us-strategic-pivot